Projecting Diameter Growth in Tropical Trees: A New Modeling Approach
Authors: Martin Ricker1; Rafael del Río2
Source: Forest Science, Volume 50, Number 2, April 2004 , pp. 213-224(12)
Abstract:
An important and heretofore unresolved challenge in forestry has been how to project long-term tree growth (i.e., decades to hundreds of years) from short-term measurements (here 1 year) for trees that do not present annual growth rings in their trunk wood. Such a method is crucial in the lowland tropics, where few long-term growth measurements have been taken, and where frequently trees lack reliable annual growth rings because of the lack of winters or highly seasonal dry periods. The new piecewise linear (PL) growth model, developed in this article, relates logarithmic relative growth to trunk diameter. Having obtained the coefficients from piecewise linear regression, the long-term age-diameter curve is calculated, i.e., the expected average growth curve of a statistical population of individual trees. The model is applied to the following five tree species without annual growth rings from the tropical rainforest in Los Tuxtlas (Veracruz, Mexico): Aspidosperma megalocarpon, Cordia alliodora, Dialium guianense, Guarea grandifolia, and Persea schiedeana. Using the tools of multiple linear regression, the PL model is highly flexible to derive sigmoid, exponential, and over-exponential growth separately for different diameter segments. FOR. SCI. 50(2):213–224.Keywords: Bootstrap; exponential integral; multiple linear regression with fixed intercept; piecewise linear regression carried out as multipl; environmental management; forest; forest management; forest resources; forestry; forestry research; forestry science; natural resources; natural resource management
Document Type: Regular article
Affiliations: 1: Estación de Biología Tropical “Los Tuxtlas” Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Apartado postal 94 San Andrés Tuxtla Veracruz Mexico 95701 Phone: 52-29494-26623 martin_tuxtlas@yahoo.com.mx, Email: mricker@servidor.unam.mx 2: Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas (IIMAS) UNAM Apartado postal 20-726, Administración 20, Delegación Álvaro Obregón México D.F. Mexico 01000 Phone: 52-55-5622-3595 delrio@leibniz.iimas.unam.mx, Email: delrio@servidor.unam.mx
